Comparing the Sales Model to actual sales

Once you have had Inventory Services set up and running for a while, you may want to compare the actual sales of a product to its sales model. Based on the comparison, you may need to update the sales model. The update can be a straight replacement of the model with actual sales data, or you can update it with sales data you have modified.

In an ideal situation, a sales model’s predictions would agree completely with real-world sales, and the model could be relied upon to generate orders with correct volumes and timely delivery for every store and product. In practice, factors such as sales model setup assumptions, unpredictable fluctuations in demand, and incorrect readings can limit a model’s accuracy. Over time, the Sales Model Update Comparison window lets you fine-tune a sales model to improve its agreement with actual sales.

To access the window, go to Maintenance > Sales Model Update Comparison. The window consists of a header and a grid.

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The header contains fields used to set restrictions on the data you retrieve. The grid displays a row for each store’s commodities. Each commodity has its own, independent sales model. You can expand each row to view forecasted and actual sales data daily, and by total.

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Retrieving data

To retrieve sales model data, follow these steps.

  1. Go to Maintenance > Sales Model Update Comparison.

  2. Make entries in the following fields to restrict the data retrieved.

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    RevType1-3

    Revenue classifications to which the company has been assigned in its profile

    Note: The field names and options are set up in the RevType 1-3 labels in the System Administration application.

    Region1

    Dispatch region designation for the place where the driver is currently located, or (for a driver with an On the Road dispatch status) where he will finish his current trip

    Note: Dispatch regions are set up in the System Administration application.

    OtherTypes2

    Company classifications to which the company has been assigned in its profile

    Note: The field names and options are set up in the OtherTypes2 label in the System Administration application.

    Bill To

    Displays a company if the Bill To checkbox is selected in the company’s profile. For information about setting up company profiles, see Company File Maintenance in the TMWSuite File Maintenance online help.

    Mode

    To enable the grid to display data, leave the field as UNKNOWN, or select Forecast.

    Note: Mode options are system codes required by the application. They can be viewed in the InventoryServiceMode label in the System Administration application. System codes should never be changed or deleted. Additionally, you should not add options to the label.

    End

    Enter the ending date for the sales data you want to see displayed in the grid. The number of days' worth of data displayed is based on this date, and the number of weeks recorded for the commodity in the Commodity Forecast Setup window’s Weeks Included field. To view the commodity’s forecast setup, select Maintenance > Commodity Forecast Setup.

  3. Click image4 Open.
    The grid displays data matching your restrictions.

Viewing a data summary for a store’s tank

When data is first retrieved, the grid shows summary information for all forecasted commodities at each store matching your retrieval restrictions.

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When a row is expanded, you can see the sales model and sales performance for that product.

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To review sales data, use this procedure:

  1. Retrieve the data.

  2. If you want, you can sort the grid by clicking the appropriate header. A suggested sort key is DeltaPercent. This sort lets you focus on large and small differences between the sales model and actual sales.

  3. For a given product, compare the forecast sales model (WeeklySalesBefore) to actual sales (WeeklySalesAfter). The differences are summarized by the Delta (quantity) and DeltaPercent fields.

  4. To view daily figures for the product, click image6 Expand. You can then compare the daily forecast model (SundayOld - SaturdayOld) with daily sales (Sunday - Saturday).

    In the following definitions, all fields are read-only unless noted otherwise.

    • Denotes fields that are viewable when a row is expanded.

      Include

      Mark a product’s current sales model for replacement by actual sales data.

      CompanyID

      ID of the consignee company (store)

      ForecastCommodity

      ID of the commodity

      WeeklySalesBefore

      Total weekly sales predicted by the product’s current sales model

      The same figure is displayed in the TotalOld field.

      WeeklySalesAfter

      Product’s total actual sales for the period ending on the End date

      An orange background indicates the difference between WeeklySalesBefore and WeeklySalesAfter exceeds 10%. The same figure is displayed in the Total field.

      Delta

      Calculated as:

      WeeklySalesBefore - WeeklySalesAfter

      A positive difference is green; a negative difference is red.

      DeltaPercent

      Calculated as an absolute value:

      (WeeklySalesBefore - WeeklySalesAfter) / WeeklySalesBefore

      The result is expressed as a positive percentage.

      Commodity

      ID of the commodity

      TotalOld

      Weekly total sales predicted by the product’s current sales model

      It is equal to the sum of SundayOld through SaturdayOld. The same figure is displayed in the WeeklySalesBefore field.

      Note: The displayed TotalOld value might differ by a fraction of a percent from the sum of SundayOld through SaturdayOld. This difference can result from percent rounding used in calculations, or from manual sales entries.

      Total

      Product’s total sales for the period ending on the End date

      It is equal to the sum of sales displayed in the Sunday through Saturday fields. The same figure is displayed in the WeeklySalesAfter field.

      SundayOld - SaturdayOld

      Predicted daily sales according to the product’s current sales model

      Sunday - Saturday

      Actual daily sales for each weekday, as of the End date

      These fields can be edited.

      SundayPercent - SaturdayPercent

      Calculated as:

      Actual sales for an individual day (Sunday, Monday,…​Saturday) divided by the Total figure.

  5. To collapse the row of daily figures, click image7 Collapse.

Updating sales data

After comparing current sales data with the Sales Model data, you may want to update the Sales Model for some products. The replacement data can be the unedited sales figures for Sunday - Saturday, or edited quantities based on these figures. The decision to update the model, and the method you use, depends on your company’s policies and understanding of sales conditions.

Here are two possible approaches to interpreting the data:

  • DeltaPercent values of a few percent or less

    DeltaPercent values of a few percent or less indicate the model and sales are in reasonable agreement. If DeltaPercent values are consistent from week to week, it might be appropriate to replace the sales model with actual or slightly modified sales figures.

  • DeltaPercent values greater than a few percent

    DeltaPercent values greater than a few percent, or that fluctuate widely, might indicate problems with the initial sales model, unexpected changes in demand, reading errors, or other conditions. These should be investigated.

    Note: A significant difference between a sales model and actual sales can be caused by a single, random event. A recent event can make a sales model appear inaccurate, but the event’s influence will gradually disappear over time. In this case, you might choose to not update the sales model.

Use care and good judgment should you decide to replace a product’s sales model with actual or modified Sunday - Saturday sales figures.

To update a product’s Sales Model, follow these steps:

  1. Retrieve the data.

  2. Click the image6 icon for a product to expand its row and view daily sales.

  3. If appropriate, modify the product’s Sunday - Saturday sales figures. If you do not, the model will be replaced with the product’s unedited sales figures.

  4. Select the Include checkbox for that product.

  5. If you want, click the image7 icon to collapse the product’s row of daily figures.

  6. Click image8 Save.

    Note: The system does not request confirmation that you want to update the Sales Model. The update takes place immediately.

    For each product that has the Include checkbox selected, sales figures in the Sunday - Saturday fields replace the product’s current sales model (SundayOld - SaturdayOld).

  7. Repeat Steps 2-6 for other products you want to update.

The sales model and actual sales will now be the same. Future sales will affect the Sunday - Saturday fields, so the sales model and current sales figures can again differ.